Global Merchandise Trade Faces Unexpected Downturn

In a startling revision, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted its 2025 global merchandise trade forecast from a 3% growth to a 0.2% contraction. This downturn is significantly influenced by North America, where exports are anticipated to decrease sharply by 12.6%.

Potential for Further Decline

The WTO has issued a warning that the global trade in goods could experience a more severe drop of up to 1.5% should trade tensions escalate and policy uncertainties spread more widely. On a somewhat brighter note, the trade in services is projected to grow by 4%, albeit this is still about 1 percentage point lower than earlier estimates.

Director-General's Statement

"While the recent easing of tariff tensions has provided temporary relief to global trade, persistent uncertainties pose a significant risk to global economic growth. The most vulnerable economies are likely to bear the brunt of these challenges," stated WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.