Global Trade Faces Downturn

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade in 2025, predicting a 0.2% contraction, a significant downgrade from the previously anticipated 3% growth. This downturn is expected to be spearheaded by North America, with exports projected to plummet by 12.6%.

Potential for Further Decline

The WTO cautions that the global trade in goods could see a further decline of up to 1.5% should the trade war intensify and if there's a "broader spillover of policy uncertainty." On a slightly brighter note, the trade in services is anticipated to grow by 4%, albeit this is approximately 1 percentage point lower than earlier forecasts.

Director-General's Warning

"The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has temporarily alleviated some pressure on global trade. Nonetheless, the persistent uncertainty poses a significant risk to global growth, with potentially severe repercussions worldwide, especially for the most vulnerable economies," stated WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.