Global Merchandise Trade Forecast Revised Downward

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has adjusted its forecast for global merchandise trade in 2025, projecting a 0.2% contraction, a significant revision from the previously anticipated 3% growth. This downturn is expected to be predominantly driven by a sharp 12.6% decline in exports from North America.

Potential for Further Decline

The WTO has issued warnings that the global trade in goods could experience a more severe drop of up to 1.5% should the trade war intensify and if there's a "broader spillover of policy uncertainty." On a brighter note, the trade in services is forecasted to grow by 4%, albeit this is still approximately 1 percentage point lower than earlier projections.

Director-General's Statement

"The recent de-escalation of tariff tensions has provided temporary relief to global trade pressures. Nevertheless, persistent uncertainties pose a significant risk to global growth, with potentially dire implications, especially for the world's most vulnerable economies," stated WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.