Sharp Increase in Recession Odds

The likelihood of the United States entering a recession in 2025 has surged to 70%, a significant jump from the 20% chance recorded in January, as reported by Kalshi, a leading financial exchange and prediction market.

Trade War Fears Escalate

This alarming rise is attributed to President Donald Trump's aggressive new tariffs on major US trade partners, including China and the European Union. The subsequent retaliatory measures have sparked widespread concern over the potential global economic fallout.

Global Economic Impact

The unfolding trade war not only threatens the US economy but also poses a significant risk to global economic stability, with experts warning of the far-reaching consequences of these escalating tensions.