US Recession Odds Jump to 70%

The likelihood of the United States entering a recession has surged to 70%, a significant leap from the 20% chance noted at the beginning of the year. This alarming update comes from Kalshi, a leading financial exchange and prediction market.

Trade Wars Fuel Economic Fears

President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies targeting major trade partners like China and the European Union, along with their retaliatory measures, are at the heart of growing concerns. These developments threaten not just the US but the global economy at large.

A Sharp Increase in Recession Risks

The dramatic rise in recession probabilities reflects the escalating tensions and uncertainties in international trade relations, marking a stark contrast to the optimistic outlook at the start of the year.