Global Oil Production Forecast Remains Steady Despite Sanctions

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently updated its Short-Term Energy Outlook, indicating that the sanctions imposed on Russian oil are unlikely to significantly alter the global production forecast. The EIA forecasts an increase in global production of liquid fuels by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. This growth is attributed to supply increases from non-OPEC+ countries and the easing of OPEC+ production cuts.

Global Oil Inventories and Prices

In the first quarter of 2025, global oil inventories are expected to decline due to OPEC+ production cuts, which will likely keep crude oil prices stable. However, from the second quarter of 2025 through 2026, a gradual increase in production, coupled with relatively weak global oil demand growth, is expected to lead to a rise in inventories.