South Korea's Export Volume Poised for Record High in 2024

The Korea International Trade Association (KITA) has projected that South Korea's export volume will surge to a record $685 billion in 2024, marking a significant 9.5% increase from the previous year. This growth is expected to propel the nation from its current 8th position to 6th in the global export rankings.

However, this forecast falls short of the government's ambitious export target of $700 billion for this year. Amid growing economic uncertainties and concerns about a potential export slowdown following the recent U.S. presidential election, the Bank of Korea reported the weakest business sentiment in the manufacturing sector in 13 months.

Despite these concerns, KITA forecasted that next year's export volume would increase by 1.8% to approximately $697 billion. Next year's import volume is expected to rise by 2.5% to $654 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $43 billion. If these predictions hold true, South Korea will set new export records for two consecutive years.

Semiconductors, a major driver of this year's export performance, are expected to continue their growth trend with a 2.2% increase next year. The recovery of memory prices and the growth of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry are anticipated to sustain semiconductor demand, maintaining a favorable trend. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down compared to the very high growth rate of 47.2% from January to October this year.

With the possibility of export growth continuing into next year, expectations have risen that South Korea could surpass Japan's export volume within a few years. Although Japan's export growth has declined by 1.9%, South Korea's export outlook for November and December has slightly decreased, preventing it from surpassing Japan this year.