Global Economic Growth Forecast Adjusted

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 3.1%, from the previous estimate of 3.3%. The forecast for 2026 also sees a decrease, adjusted to 3% from 3.3%.

Country-Specific Growth Projections

In its latest report, the OECD projects the United States to grow at a rate of 2.2% in 2025, a slight decrease from the earlier forecast of 2.4%. Conversely, China's growth outlook has been revised upwards from 4.7% to 4.8%.

Inflation and Trade War Concerns

The organization highlighted that high inflation is expected to persist above central bank targets in many countries, with G20 economies averaging 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The OECD also cautioned that an escalation in trade wars poses significant risks to these projections, potentially reducing global output by approximately 0.3% by the third year and increasing inflation by an average of 0.4 percentage points annually in the initial three years.

Specifically, the United States could see its growth outlook reduced by 0.75 percentage points, while the Eurozone and China's baselines would be cut by 0.17 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.