Global Oil Demand Growth

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth, predicting an average increase of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by the year 2025. This marks a slight upward adjustment from the previous estimate of 870,000 bpd for 2024.

Contributing Factors

China is anticipated to lead the charge in demand growth, despite its share of the global increase dropping to 19%. Meanwhile, India and Other Asia regions are expected to collectively add 500,000 bpd to the global demand growth.

Global Oil Supply Outlook

On the supply side, global oil production is forecasted to rise by 1.6 million bpd, reaching 104.5 million bpd this year from 102.7 million bpd in 2024. The IEA notes that, despite fresh US sanctions on Russia and Iran causing market disruptions at the start of the year, these measures have yet to significantly impact global oil supply. Iranian crude oil exports have seen only a marginal decrease, and Russian oil flows remain largely unaffected.