Global Oil Demand on the Rise

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its forecast, predicting a significant increase in global oil demand. According to the latest monthly report, the demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 870,000 bpd in 2024. This revision reflects a slight upward adjustment from previous estimates.

Key Contributors to Demand Growth

China is anticipated to lead the charge in demand growth, contributing the most despite a decrease in its global share to 19%. Additionally, India and Other Asia are projected to add a combined 500,000 bpd to global demand growth, highlighting the region's increasing importance in the global oil market.

Global Oil Supply Trends

On the supply side, the global oil supply, which was at 102.7 million bpd in 2024, is expected to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 104.5 million bpd this year. The IEA noted that while new US sanctions on Russia and Iran have caused market disturbances at the beginning of the year, they have not significantly impacted global oil supply. Iranian crude oil exports have seen only a slight reduction, and Russian oil flows remain largely unaffected.