Global Oil Production Forecast Amid Sanctions

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) has recently updated its Short-Term Energy Outlook, indicating that the sanctions imposed on Russian oil are unlikely to significantly alter the global oil production forecast. The EIA anticipates an increase in global production of liquid fuels by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026. This growth is attributed to increased supply from non-OPEC+ countries and the easing of OPEC+ production restrictions.

Oil Inventory and Price Predictions

In the early months of 2025, global oil inventories are expected to decrease due to OPEC+ production cuts, which should maintain crude oil prices close to their current levels. However, from the second quarter of 2025 through 2026, a gradual increase in production, coupled with subdued global oil demand growth, is likely to result in rising inventories.