HDFC Securities' Outlook on India's GDP Growth

HDFC Securities anticipates India's GDP growth to moderate to 6.4% in the fiscal year 2024-25, citing risks from a slowdown in urban demand and insufficient revival in private capital expenditure. The forecast contrasts with the Reserve Bank of India's recent downward revision of its growth estimate to 6.6% from 7.2%.

However, the financial advisory firm highlights that growing rural demand and anticipated increases in government spending are key growth drivers. For 2025-26, HDFC Securities estimates GDP growth to improve to 6.7%, as outlined in its report 'The Big Review 2024'.

The report also notes that while urban consumption is slowing due to persistent inflation, rural consumption is gradually reviving, supported by favorable monsoon conditions and adequate crop yields. Dhiraj Relli, MD and CEO of HDFC Securities, emphasized India's potential to stand out in GDP growth compared to global counterparts, with sectors such as BFSI, industrials, cement, energy, and IT expected to drive future growth.